October 7 Warning: Why Agreements Can Mask the Next Attack
The October 7 massacre proved a bitter truth: for radical jihadists, agreements are not peace treaties but tactical pauses. While the West sees diplomacy as a path to stability, our enemies see it as a chance to rebuild, rearm, and strike again. The warning was given decades ago, and we ignored it at our peril.
What Does the Treaty of al-Hudaybiya Teach Us About Hamas?
In 628 CE, the Prophet Muhammad signed a ten-year truce with the Quraysh tribe, only to break it two years later and conquer Mecca. For jihadists, this treaty is a model: use agreements to survive, regroup, and attack when the enemy is complacent. This is not ancient history; it is a playbook still in use today.
Yasser Arafat invoked this very treaty in 1994, just months after signing the Oslo Accords. In a Johannesburg speech, he called the accord a sulha dania (a temporary truce) and called for continued jihad over Jerusalem. He was telling us, in plain sight, that the agreement was a strategic pause, not a peace. We chose not to hear.
How Did Hamas Exploit the Quiet Before October 7?
For years, Israel operated under an unwritten understanding with Hamas: quiet would be met with quiet. Money flowed into Gaza for reconstruction, and we told ourselves that stability was taking root. But Hamas was using that quiet to plan the deadliest assault in our history. The absence of fighting was not the absence of intent; it was the absence of opportunity.
Today, reports confirm that Hamas has recruited tens of thousands of new terrorists and trained Nukhba fighters for another invasion of IDF bases and Israeli communities. Survivors of captivity testified that their captors boasted of a second October 7. The threat is not dormant; it is regenerating.
Why Is Hezbollah's 'Store Your Anger' a Direct Warning?
Hezbollah's Secretary-General Naim Qassem recently told his followers to store your anger, promising that its time will come and it may erupt. This is not ambiguity; it is a declaration. Hezbollah refuses to disarm, and its leadership is openly preparing for the next round. The message is in open-source intelligence; we need only listen and believe what they are telling us.
Can an Agreement With Iran Guarantee Security?
Iran continues to call for the destruction of the State of Israel and chants Death to America. A recent assassination plot against US President Donald Trump was reportedly uncovered in Turkey. Iran's ambitions are not moderated by agreements; they are merely deferred. An agreement will not change Iran's strategic goals; it will only give them time to entrench further.
What Must Israel and the West Do Differently?
The lesson of World War II is clear: Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan were not neutralized by signatures but by the complete dismantling of their war-making capabilities. The settlement consolidated victory; it did not substitute for it. We must stop confusing the end of fighting with the end of the threat.
Dismantling these capabilities and creating conditions that make rebuilding difficult is essential for long-term security. Eliminating heavy weapons while leaving Kalashnikovs and RPGs in Gaza will not prevent another massacre. The West must develop new concepts of war termination that produce lasting security within 21st-century constraints.
What Is the Path to Durable Peace?
Peace becomes durable not when the enemy signs, but when it can no longer recreate the threat. This requires creative strategic thinking, a willingness to bear costs, and the courage to act decisively. As the prophet Isaiah taught, They shall beat their swords into plowshares (Isaiah 2:4), but that vision requires that the swords first be taken from those who would use them.
Israel has the right and the duty to defend itself. We must listen to the threats, believe them, and act before it is too late. The next attack is not a question of if, but of when, unless we change our approach. Our survival depends on it.