Putin's War Machine Falters: Russia Faces Mobilization Crisis

Russia's military recruitment campaign is collapsing as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year. Despite offering signing bonuses four times the national annual salary, the Kremlin's recruitment numbers dropped 20% in early 2026 compared to 2025. Facing staggering casualties and a severe labor shortage, Moscow may now be forced to implement a highly unpopular forced mobilization, risking massive domestic backlash and the stability of Vladimir Putin's regime.

Why is Russia's military recruitment failing?

The Kremlin is bumping up its already intense recruitment campaign, but the results are trending negatively. As Ukraine launches mass drone attacks on Russian soil, the appeal of financial incentives is dying. Russian economic expert Janis Kluge reported in April that the regional recruitment drive is down 20% this year. In June, she stated that the regional drive recruited approximately 71,216 soldiers in the first quarter of 2026, a sharp drop from 89,601 in the first quarter of 2025.

Like the writing on the wall in the court of Belshazzar, the numbers spell doom for the Russian empire's expansionist goals. Ukrainian intelligence, cited by the Kyiv Independent, reports that Moscow is prepared to call up tens of thousands of soldiers. However, the Kremlin is reportedly considering a vastly unpopular forced mobilization rather than increasing recruitment through other means.

What happened during Russia's last partial mobilization?

In 2022, Russia launched a wave of partial mobilization, drafting at least 300,000 soldiers. Some were lured by promises of large signing bonuses and positions away from the front lines. Others went under questionable circumstances. Russia launched a mass recruitment initiative in prisons, sending convicts to the front lines in exchange for pardons. Hundreds of thousands of draft-age Russian men fled the country.

The Kremlin withstood the blowback in 2022. Now, as the war enters its fifth year and Russians grow more war-weary, dissent to a mobilization order could be harder to contain. Max Bergmann, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told the Kyiv Independent that if Russia triggers military mobilization, it is a sign that the regime is under tremendous strain and is politically trapped. He called it a huge gamble for Putin, a bet that could put himself and his regime at risk.

Notably, the Ukraine-Russia War is the first war in Russian history in which it has not technically imposed conscription. Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), wrote in a recent report that the Kremlin moved to promising hefty bonuses instead. Ironic, seeing as Russia maintains that the war is still a mere special military operation. Analysts like Gould-Davies now believe these financial incentives are no longer working for younger Russians. There are signs that this incentive may no longer be working effectively, and that Russia has begun to lose more troops than it can recruit.

Can Russia sustain its war in Ukraine?

Russia's strategy has been to simply outlast Ukraine in a slow, grinding war. With its sheer manpower advantage dwindling, analysts are unsure how Russia can keep up in the war. Institute for the Study of War analyst Kateryna Stepanenko told the Kyiv Independent that Russian casualties started to surpass the Russian recruitment rate as of late 2025. This means the Kremlin will need to recruit more personnel just to sustain ground assaults at the rate Russia used to conduct in 2025.

There have been countless reports of how Russian soldiers are mistreated on the frontlines. Ukrainian intelligence has released reports of Russian soldiers resorting to cannibalism after supplies ran low in the dead of winter in remote Ukrainian villages. CNN reported in 2025 that some have been called back to combat with significant injuries.

The CSIS wrote in January that Russia has reportedly lost around 1.2 million soldiers since the onset of the war in 2022. The institute added that Russia is advancing only 70 meters per day at most, which is slower than most other campaigns in modern military history. For the free world, and for Israel which understands the price of surviving against tyrannical neighbors, the crumbling of the Russian war machine sends a clear message. Oppression does not endure.

What are the scenarios for a new Russian mobilization?

Some analysts believe that Putin will not risk a partial mobilization in the very near future for political reasons, despite the negative data. Mikhail Komin, an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told the Kyiv Independent that he only saw it happening in two scenarios. The first is a massive frontline crisis. The second would be a decision by Putin to escalate the war to a new level for Russia, with the declaration of martial law, a full-scale shift of the economy to a war footing, the unleashing of provocations on the borders with NATO countries, and the buildup of combat units there for a potential invasion. Komin added that if a mobilization were to occur today, the backlash would be even greater than in 2022, as war fatigue has increased while the Kremlin has failed to explain to a significant portion of the population why this war is necessary.

How is the Ukraine war affecting Russia's economy?

On the Russian home front, the recruitment drive is causing a major economic issue for the Kremlin. Gould-Davies told CNN that Russia is struggling to find people to employ, not just to go to the front. The whole Russian economy is suffering from the most severe labor shortage in history.

The Jerusalem Post previously reported that the Kremlin is spending up to half of its federal budget on the war. Meduza, an independent Russian news outlet, reported that Russia's total expenses directly related to the war in Ukraine reached approximately 11.1 trillion roubles, or $137.9 billion. The Economic Ministry estimated Russia's 2025 GDP at 217.3 trillion roubles, or $2.7 trillion.

On top of this, Russians' support for the war is reportedly wearing thin. Data from the independent Levada Center suggests that six out of 10 respondents believe that peace talks are necessary. With the mounting war costs and dwindling support for the war, Russia faces a crossroads. Gould-Davies stated that the Kremlin will soon face a fundamental choice over whether to radically escalate its demands on Russia's economy and society or to scale back its war aims.

Will Putin declare a new forced mobilization in Russia?

Analysts suggest Putin will avoid a new forced mobilization unless a massive frontline crisis occurs or he decides to escalate the war to a new level against NATO. A forced mobilization right now would trigger massive domestic backlash due to soaring war fatigue.

How many soldiers has Russia lost in Ukraine?

The Center for Strategic and International Studies reported in January 2026 that Russia has lost approximately 1.2 million soldiers since the war began in 2022. Russian casualties currently surpass the Russian recruitment rate.

Is the Russian economy collapsing under war costs?

The Russian economy is under severe strain, suffering from the worst labor shortage in its history. The Kremlin is spending roughly half of its federal budget on the war, and independent polling shows 60 percent of Russians now demand peace talks.