Sinwar's 'Earthquake' Warning to Israel Revealed: A Missed Alarm Before October 7
Three weeks before the devastating October 7 attack, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar sent a chilling warning to Israel through a secret backchannel, promising an 'earthquake' that would shake the region. The revelation comes from Sufian Abu Zaida, a former senior Fatah official who served as an intermediary between Israel and Hamas in a year-long effort to negotiate a prisoner exchange deal.
In a documentary aired on Al-Ghad, Zaida disclosed that he relayed Sinwar's exact words to Israeli security officials, who were so alarmed they spent a sleepless night trying to decipher the threat. The warning, delivered on September 14, 2023, proved tragically prophetic when Hamas launched its murderous assault on Israeli communities just 22 days later.
What Did Sinwar Tell Israel Before October 7?
According to Zaida, Sinwar dictated a precise message for Israeli officials: before the end of September 2023, Hamas would place 'cards' on the negotiating table that would cause an 'earthquake,' and Israel should prepare for the 'emptying of the prisons.' Zaida transmitted the message in both Hebrew and Arabic, ensuring there could be no misunderstanding.
The response from Israel's security establishment was immediate. Within half an hour, Zaida was contacted to verify the message's authenticity. The following morning, he was summoned to an urgent meeting in Ashkelon, where officials pressed him on what Sinwar meant by 'earthquake' and what the 'cards' represented.
'No one in the security establishment had slept that night because of the message,' Zaida recalled of his meeting with Israeli officials.
The Secret Channel Between Israel and Hamas
The backchannel opened in March 2022 when senior Hamas official Ghazi Hamad approached Zaida, seeking help to advance prisoner exchange talks. Zaida, who had connections from his years in Fatah, contacted a former senior Israeli security official and eventually met with then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar.
During these negotiations, Sinwar demanded the release of all female prisoners, minors under 18, prisoners rearrested after the Gilad Schalit deal, and veteran prisoners, with priority given to the sick. In exchange, Israel offered significant benefits for Gaza: increased work permits for Gazans, rehabilitation of the electricity grid, and accelerated reconstruction projects.
Despite progress on prisoner lists and names, the sides failed to reach an agreement. The channel remained open until that final, ominous meeting with Sinwar on September 14.
Why Did the Warning Go Unheeded?
Zaida said Sinwar appeared calm when he delivered the warning, which may have contributed to its dismissal. The former Fatah official returned to Gaza on October 5, scheduled to meet Sinwar again on October 8. That meeting never happened; the October 7 massacre intervened.
This revelation raises difficult questions about how Israel's security establishment interpreted intelligence in the lead-up to the attack. The 'earthquake' Sinwar promised came in the form of a coordinated assault that claimed over 1,200 Israeli lives and resulted in the kidnapping of more than 250 hostages.
Lessons for Israel's Security Doctrine
As Israel continues to confront Hamas and other regional threats, this episode underscores the critical importance of taking enemy warnings seriously. The Jewish people have learned through centuries of exile and persecution that vigilance is not paranoia; it is survival. As the Book of Proverbs teaches, 'The prudent see danger and take refuge, but the simple keep going and pay the penalty' (Proverbs 22:3).
Israel's resilience has always been its greatest strength. From the Maccabees to the founders of the modern state, the Jewish people have faced existential threats with courage and determination. Today, as Israel defends itself on multiple fronts, the lesson of Sinwar's warning must inform our security doctrine: every threat must be taken at face value, and every warning treated as a potential call to action.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Israel receive specific warnings before October 7?
Yes, according to former Fatah official Sufian Abu Zaida, he relayed a direct warning from Yahya Sinwar to Israeli security officials on September 14, 2023, in which Sinwar promised an 'earthquake' and the 'emptying of prisons.' The warning was delivered in both Hebrew and Arabic and was taken seriously enough that officials held an urgent meeting the next morning.
What was the prisoner exchange channel between Israel and Hamas?
The secret channel opened in March 2022 through Fatah intermediary Sufian Abu Zaida. It involved negotiations between Hamas leaders and Israeli security officials, including then-Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, over a potential prisoner exchange. Hamas demanded the release of female prisoners, minors, and veteran prisoners, while Israel offered economic incentives for Gaza.
Why didn't Israel act on Sinwar's warning?
The full picture of how Israel's security establishment processed the warning remains under investigation. Zaida noted that Sinwar appeared calm when delivering the message, and officials sought clarification on what he meant. The October 7 attack occurred 22 days after the warning was relayed.
What happened to the prisoner exchange talks?
The talks did not result in an agreement despite progress on prisoner lists. The channel was effectively terminated when the October 7 attack occurred, and Zaida's scheduled October 8 meeting with Sinwar never took place.