Saudi Normalization Dream: The Blind Spot That Shaped October 7
Three years after the devastating October 7 massacre, a painful truth has emerged: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's fixation on a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia clouded his judgment in the face of clear warnings. The dream of normalization, which seemed closer than ever in the fall of 2023, became a strategic blind spot that Hamas exploited with devastating precision.
Netanyahu's Vision of a Historic Saudi-Israel Peace
Two weeks before the October 7 attack, Netanyahu stood before the UN General Assembly, painting a hopeful picture of regional transformation. He celebrated the Abraham Accords as proof that Arabs and Jews could grow closer, citing Jewish weddings in Dubai, Torah scroll dedications in Bahrain, and Holocaust education in the UAE.
But for Netanyahu, these achievements were merely the opening act. The main event was Saudi Arabia. “I believe that we are at the cusp of an even more dramatic breakthrough - a historic peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia,” he declared, promising that such an agreement would end the Arab-Israeli conflict and reshape the region.
How Close Was Israel to a Saudi Deal?
The momentum was real. Just two days before Netanyahu's UN speech, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told Fox News: “Every day we get closer.” A 2024 Atlantic investigation revealed that the Biden administration was actively brokering a comprehensive package including Israeli-Saudi normalization, a US-Saudi defense pact, and American support for a Saudi civilian nuclear program.
The Saudi shift had been building for years. As early as 2018, MBS told Jewish American leaders that Palestinians had “missed one opportunity after another” and should either accept peace proposals or “shut up and stop complaining.” In 2020, Netanyahu met MBS on Saudi soil, a historic first. By March 2022, MBS told The Atlantic: “We don't look at Israel as an enemy; we look to them as a potential ally.”
Warnings Ignored: The Intelligence Failure
When Egypt and the UAE sent urgent warnings about Hamas preparations, they reached a prime minister blinded by two things: excessive confidence in Israel's military deterrence, and the dazzling prospect of a Saudi breakthrough. The very intelligence cooperation that made Israel a regional power also fed a dangerous hubris.
Research institutes and intelligence assessments failed to grasp that normalization itself was the trigger. Instead, many focused on the internal rift caused by the judicial overhaul as the primary threat to national security. Even the Israel Defense and Security Forum's briefing on October 5, just two days before the attack, declared that “Israeli-Saudi normalization seems closer than ever” while dismissing Hamas's Gaza escalation as mere economic posturing.
Hamas's Strategic Calculation: Sabotage at Any Cost
For Hamas, Israeli-Saudi normalization represented an existential threat. Minutes from a Hamas leadership meeting on September 26-27, 2023, reveal Yahya Sinwar calling for an “extraordinary action” to create a strategic shift. Sinwar understood that Saudi normalization would isolate the Palestinian cause, undermine the “resistance project,” and place Israel at the center of a new regional order.
This was not a new tactic. Hamas had used the same playbook in 2002, launching a devastating terror attack at the Park Hotel in Netanya during Passover to sabotage the Arab Peace Initiative. On October 7, they repeated history with catastrophic results.
The Reckoning: Three Years Later
Three years on, the picture is clear. Both Sinwar and Netanyahu understood the strategic weight of Saudi normalization. One sought to destroy it; the other sought to achieve it. Sinwar succeeded. Netanyahu failed, precisely because his desire to maintain calm and prepare the ground for peace blinded him to the storm gathering at the border.
The lesson is harsh but essential: Israel's strength lies not only in its alliances and innovations, but in its vigilance. The dream of peace must never become an excuse for complacency. As the Jewish people have learned throughout history, survival demands both vision and clear-eyed awareness of those who seek our destruction.
The writer teaches in the Department of Islamic and Middle Eastern Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and is a member of the Mitvim Institute board.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Saudi normalization talks contribute to the October 7 attack?
Yes. Hamas leadership, particularly Yahya Sinwar, viewed Israeli-Saudi normalization as a strategic threat that would isolate the Palestinian cause. Meeting minutes from late September 2023 show Sinwar calling for an “extraordinary action” to sabotage the process, which influenced the timing of the October 7 operation.
What warnings did Israel receive before October 7?
Egypt and the UAE warned Israel about Hamas preparations, and a message from Sinwar about an “earthquake” was conveyed through Palestinian politician Sufian Abu Zaida. However, these warnings were overshadowed by confidence in Israel's deterrence and focus on the Saudi normalization opportunity.
How close was Israel to a Saudi peace deal in 2023?
Very close. The Biden administration was brokering a comprehensive package including Israeli-Saudi normalization, a US-Saudi defense pact, and a Saudi civilian nuclear program. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman stated in September 2023 that “every day we get closer.”