Trump's Gaza Plan: The Real Threat Isn't Netanyahu, It's the West Bank
As Israel heads to the polls, Washington faces a delicate balancing act. The true danger to President Trump's peace initiative isn't a public clash with Prime Minister Netanyahu, but the quiet erosion of possibilities in Judea and Samaria.
Washington is making a calculated move ahead of Israel's general elections. President Donald Trump and the Board of Peace have concluded that a public confrontation with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu before Israelis vote would be counterproductive. Netanyahu would instantly weaponize American pressure, telling Israelis that only he has the strength to stand against the world, Europe, the Arabs, the international community, and even Trump himself.
There is wisdom in denying Netanyahu that political gift. This calculation explains why Washington is not currently forcing full implementation of the Board of Peace's 15-point Gaza roadmap, the mechanism agreed upon on July 30 to implement Trump's broader peace vision.
What Does the 15-Point Gaza Roadmap Include?
The 15-point plan is a comprehensive framework. It outlines a phased process toward the demilitarization of Hamas and other armed groups under the principle of One Authority, One Weapon, One Law. It includes the complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza in stages, the transfer of civilian authority to the Palestinian National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, the deployment of an International Stabilization Force, new Palestinian police for internal security, and large-scale reconstruction under Palestinian administration.
The plan also connects these arrangements to a political path toward Palestinian self-determination. It is not merely another ceasefire. It aims to create an alternative to both Hamas rule and permanent Israeli military control of Gaza.
The American calculation is straightforward: the final push should wait until Israelis elect their next government, rather than allowing Netanyahu to make resistance to Trump a central campaign issue.
That may be politically wise. But there is a dangerous gap between postponing a confrontation with Netanyahu and allowing his coalition partners to shape the reality that will exist when the election is over.
Why the West Bank Is the Most Dangerous Arena
Netanyahu's political survival increasingly depends on the most extreme elements in his coalition. Their objective goes far beyond keeping him in power. They seek to destroy the possibility of Palestinian statehood by creating irreversible facts on the ground: expanding Israeli control, accelerating settlement, removing Palestinian communities from vulnerable areas, and making territorial separation impossible.
The danger is that Judea and Samaria become the spark for the next regional fire. That is why US Ambassador Mike Huckabee's visit to Turmus Aiya was so significant. Turmus Aiya has a large Palestinian-American population and has suffered repeated settler attacks. Huckabee, an ambassador strongly identified with support for Israel and the settlement movement, described violent settlers as terrorists and called for their prosecution. This should not be a one-time intervention. It should point toward American policy between now and the Israeli election.
Trump Should Set Private Red Lines on the West Bank
Trump does not need a public confrontation with Netanyahu. He needs to prevent Netanyahu and his extremist partners from creating irreversible facts before Israelis vote.
The first step should be private and unmistakable red lines. Trump should tell Netanyahu directly that Washington will not accept an Israeli escalation deliberately designed to ignite the West Bank, the forced displacement of Palestinian communities, major steps toward annexation, or organized settler violence intended to provoke a Palestinian response.
These warnings need not be delivered at a press conference. In fact, they should not be. Netanyahu cannot campaign against pressure that Trump does not publicly dramatize. But he must know the red lines are real.
Washington should simultaneously increase its presence on the ground. Huckabee and senior embassy officials should regularly visit Palestinian communities threatened by violence, particularly those with American citizens.
The political framing should be simple and consistent: Terrorism is terrorism, whether committed by Palestinians or Jews. Allies are expected to enforce the law.
For now, the United States should concentrate consequences on perpetrators rather than on Israel as a country. Individuals who organize or carry out serious attacks should face visa restrictions and financial sanctions. Organizations financing systematic violence should face scrutiny and consequences.
At least until after the elections, the message must not become Trump is punishing Israel. It should be: America is acting against terrorists and those who finance them.
Why Delaying the Gaza Roadmap Is a Mistake
Delaying full implementation of the Gaza roadmap must not mean freezing it. That would be an enormous mistake. Every month in which nothing changes strengthens Hamas, weakens the Palestinian alternative, and convinces Palestinians and Arab governments that promises of new governance and reconstruction are meaningless.
The Board of Peace should therefore use the pre-election period to prepare everything that does not require a public showdown with Netanyahu.
- The Palestinian technocratic administration should be ready to govern.
- Palestinian police should be trained and equipped.
- The International Stabilization Force should be assembled and its deployment plans completed.
- Arrangements for crossings, humanitarian assistance, utilities, public services, reconstruction financing, weapons decommissioning, and the transfer of administrative authority should all be ready.
- Israeli withdrawal maps should already exist.
There should not be another six months of committees and negotiations after Israelis vote. The board should have a Day One, Day 30, Day 60, and Day 90 implementation plan ready before election day. Where limited implementation can begin earlier, it should.
The sequence is already inherent in Trump's plan: Hamas begins to turn over its weapons to the agreed-upon body; Israeli forces withdraw from a defined area; the International Stabilization Force deploys; Palestinian police and civilian administration enter; reconstruction begins.
Trump's plan specifically allows implementation to proceed in areas transferred from Israeli forces even if Hamas delays elsewhere. Even one functioning area would demonstrate something enormously important: There is an alternative to permanent Israeli military control and to Hamas rule.
Building a Regional Firewall Against Escalation
Trump should also create a regional firewall against escalation. Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Turkey have different kinds of influence. Until the Israeli election, they should be coordinated around one immediate objective: Nobody lights another fire.
The purpose during this interim period is not to solve the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It is to prevent anyone from destroying the possibility of solving it.
Trump Should Refuse Netanyahu's Political Trap
Trump himself should resist the temptation to fight publicly with Netanyahu. No insults. No public ultimatums. No daily argument about Israeli politics. Instead, Trump should keep talking about his objectives: ending wars, defeating terrorism, protecting Israel, preventing regional escalation, rebuilding Gaza, and creating a political future for Palestinians.
Netanyahu would like nothing more than to campaign as the Israeli leader who stood up to Trump. Trump should refuse to play the role Netanyahu has written for him.
The strategic principle is simple: Do not publicly pressure Netanyahu in a way that could help him win the election. But do not allow him to use the period before the election to destroy Trump's peace plan.
The United States should not choose Israel's next prime minister. Israelis must do that. But electoral neutrality does not mean strategic passivity. It does not require Washington to tolerate settler terrorism, Palestinian displacement, annexation, or an avoidable explosion in the West Bank.
Trump can postpone the final push until after the Israeli election. What he cannot afford to do is discover, the morning after Israelis vote, that the ground on which his peace plan was supposed to be built no longer exists.
The writer is the Middle East director of the International Communities Organization and the co-head of the Alliance for Two States.