Arab Voters Could Decide Israel's Next Government, But Politicians Look Away

As Israel heads toward the October elections, a demographic reality is being ignored by political leaders across the spectrum. Arab citizens, who make up 21% of the population and roughly 17% of eligible voters, hold the potential to determine which bloc forms the next government. Yet the campaigns are largely silent on this critical voting bloc, and Jewish leaders have pledged to exclude Arab parties from any future coalition.

This is not just a missed opportunity. It is a strategic failure for a nation that prides itself on resilience and unity. The ultimate test of a shared society in Israel is whether all citizens are fully engaged in the political process. And right now, that test is being failed.

Why Arab Voters Matter for the October Elections

The outcome of the elections will hinge on three factors: how many Arab parties run, Arab voter turnout, and whether Jewish political leaders are willing to include an Arab party in a governing coalition. In previous elections, Arab political participation demonstrated its potential power. The Joint List won 15 seats in 2015 and 13 in 2020, becoming the Knesset's third-largest faction. In 2021, the United Arab List (UAL) made history as the first Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition. That government, led by Naftali Bennett and later Yair Lapid, lasted only 18 months, but its inclusion of an Arab party was transformative.

Yet the 2026 campaigns are largely ignoring Arab voters. Jewish leaders across the political spectrum, even those in the Center-Left including Bennett and Lapid, have pledged not to include an Arab party in the next coalition. This exclusionary rhetoric risks discouraging Arab citizens from exercising their right to vote. Only 53% voted in 2022.

The Politics of Exclusion: A Dangerous Strategy

Ignoring the demographic reality of Israel is shortsighted. Israel's Declaration of Independence promises a shared and inclusive society that guarantees political equality alongside social equality. Since no party has ever won an outright majority, coalition governments are the backbone of Israel's parliamentary system. If the Together Party, led by Bennett and Lapid, wins the election, forming a coalition without an Arab party will be extremely difficult. The same is true for Yashar, headed by Gadi Eisenkot.

Arab citizens have made significant strides in many areas of Israeli society. Their growing presence in higher education, employment, and especially the medical sector reflects their vital contribution to Israel's economic and academic success. But full partnership in the political sphere remains elusive. It is deeply troubling when even centrist leaders exclude citizens based solely on their Arab identity.

The public, however, is ahead of the politicians. More than 77% of Arab citizens support including an Arab party in the government. Among Jewish citizens, support is much lower, around 30%. This gap reflects deeper tensions in majority-minority relations. A national survey by Givat Haviva found that 72% of Jewish Israelis do not trust most Arab citizens, while 43% of Arabs say the same of Jews.

Polarization is dangerous for Israeli democracy. The country needs leaders who represent all citizens and who can build meaningful connections across its diverse population. Instead, division has become a political strategy.

Fragmentation and the Failure to Unite

To form the most right-wing government in Israel's history, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu encouraged Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir to merge their lists in 2022, later rewarding them with senior cabinet posts. Their hostility toward Arab citizens has only deepened societal fractures.

Fragmentation is also evident within both Jewish and Arab political camps. With a 3.25% electoral threshold, several parties are unlikely to win seats, wasting votes. This was a compelling argument for reviving the Joint List, a move supported by 82% of Arab voters.

Arab MKs have suggested that high turnout could yield as many as 20 seats. Demographically, this is unrealistic. Even matching the record 15 seats will be challenging. Arab citizens constitute about 17% of eligible voters, due to age distribution and non-citizen subgroups.

Negotiations to revive the Joint List ultimately failed. Israel now appears headed toward two separate Arab lists. UAL is expected to run independently, driven by its agenda of entering the next government. The other three Arab parties, Hadash, Balad, and Ta'al, are willing only to provide external political support to a government committed to improving Arab citizens' social and economic conditions and engaging in meaningful peace negotiations with the Palestinians.

Earlier, UAL leader Mansour Abbas attempted to unite the parties in a technical joint list to ensure all four passed the electoral threshold and avoided wasted votes. But with talks collapsing, this strategy is no longer viable.

Meanwhile, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir split their alliance after Election Day in 2022, while Labor and Meretz split before the election, with Meretz failing to pass the threshold and Labor reduced to four seats.

Is There a Path Forward for Jewish-Arab Partnership?

Despite ideological differences, Abbas indicated he would support reviving the Joint List if UAL could separate after Election Day, allowing him to pursue coalition participation as he did five years ago, assuming the next Jewish-led government is willing to include an Arab party.

The opportunity to advance Jewish-Arab relations through a more inclusive government is within reach. The question is not whether Arab citizens are ready for partnership. They are. The question is which Jewish political leader will be courageous enough to take their hand.

Israel's strength has always come from its ability to unite diverse communities under a common vision. As the prophet Isaiah said, 'They shall beat their swords into plowshares.' It is time for our leaders to build bridges, not walls.